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BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 135 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend we have a 13-fight card after that extended 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and that I am prepared to win some cash on Saturday. The card will occur in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC debut so it’s always nice once you are already acquainted with the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions aren’t the greatest, but there’s still a great deal of money to be obtained. I’ll be pursuing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those big prizes. Here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I will be starting my money lineup. I can put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is filled with activity and his three UFC battles have been Fight Of The Year kind conflicts. Those types of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Notably cash games since we can lock at a win and get all the points at the very best battle on the card. Usually 4 wins will find the business done in money games and we will get over 100 points with this fight. So, with that win locked in, we simply need to find 3 other people we feel great about.
GPP drama of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s tough to need to pay $9.5k for a guy like Barberena when you can just pay an extra $200 to get a -1000 preferred in Anders. But, I think that’s what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a fantastic GPP play. I believe we’ll get him at a somewhat lower ownership as a consequence of his large salary, and he has a very good chance at obtaining a 1st round win. If he can find a 1st round KO afterward he will have 100 points so he will pay off that large salary. If you believe Ellenberger is totally faded, I believe that you should find some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he is a shell of his old self. I think Barberena does pick up a finish inside this fight so that I will throw him in some GPPs and expect he is beneath owned.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the effortless worth play of this week. Currently, Fili is the betting favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. But, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I really like taking that worth when it is available so I think he is in play in all formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments together with all the value we’re getting on himbut I am ready to eat that chalk and that I don’t want to get burned by entirely fading that worth. I really do think this is the toughest fight on the card to phone, but if Fili keeps with his wrestling I presume he will have a good shot at winning this fight. If the fight remains standing for 15-minutes, I’d prefer MJ but not by a good deal. At $7.5k we don’t need a massive score from Fili so any win will probably do the trick. I am not going to pass up on this respect and I think he is the simple underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of the week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This could just be my personal prejudice but I will not have Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has only proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just seeking to attack. I think that this will be a remarkable battle also and I think it will be nearer than the chances indicate. At $8.9k I believe we’ll need a finish from him to wind up on the winning GPP lineup and that I don’t see that occurring. If you do think Dober can find a KO, then you ought to be enjoying him. I will just be paying up elsewhere since I’m not sure he could get that complete and I would not be amazed if he lost the struggle. I will say that I never seem to utilize Dober at DraftKings, so I could get burnt again but I will stick with my Dober fade and he will be my fade of this week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on every fight, my private approaches & suggestions, and also my pick prediction for every fight then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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