UFC 196 Betting Preview
When lightweight winner Rafael dos Anjos pulled from his next title defense against Connor McGregor 12 days ahead of the series, the UFC had choices galore.
You see, in the same way the featherweight kingpin will tell you, any card headlined by the Dubliner is going to be a profitable bonanza. The marketing first offered the struggle to Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar, but neither answered the call.
Edgar was coping with a groin injury that had prevented him from training for the several previous weeks, while Aldo’s trainer said he wasn’t in good enough shape conditioning-wise to take the fight on this short notice.
Former 155-pound champ Anthony Pettis was one fighter volunteering his services, linking the likes of Urijah Faber and Donald’Cowboy’ Cerrone. Even B.J. Penn needed a shot McGregor.
Nate Diaz was more than willing when contacted from the UFC. Dana White let the rumors in the air for many hours before deciding that the attention from fans was highest for a Diaz-McGregor showdown.
McGregor had told the UFC he’d fight anybody on the roster at any given weight. When Diaz’s camp indicated that getting down to 155 on short note was too much, the UFC countered with a catchweight offer of 160 pounds. Diaz countered with 165.
Whenever the UFC known as’The Notorious,”’ he said let’s just take action at 170. Therefore, tonight’s key event for UFC 196 in the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas will be a five-rounder contested at welterweight. McGregor, the 145-pound champ, is shifting up two weight classes.
Ad Most books opened McGregor (19-2 MMA, 7-0 UFC) at approximately -300, but the odds are becoming more expensive with each passing day. As of Thursday afternoon, most places had McGregor preferred in the -450 to -500 range. Diaz was approximately +380 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $380).
Now that we’ve arrived at fight day, most places have McGregor at -500 or higher. The best payout for Diaz overseas is in 5Dimes, which has him at +425.
The total for’over/under’ wagers is 2.5 rounds (-200 to the’under,’ +165’over’). For those gamblers wanting to shave some of those’chalk’ yet still back McGregor, the brace for him to triumph within the space does not offer much help (-278 in 5Dimes).
If you would like to take McGregor’s advice he’ll dust Diaz in the opening round, that brace provides a +170 yield. If you believe the pride of Ireland will make quick work of Diaz, similar to his 13-second demolition of Aldo, there is a prop at 5Dimes that the fight will not go 1:01 that supplies a lucrative +550 yield.
For McGregor to acquire by TKO/KO (in any form ), the price is -275 (risk $275 to win $100). We should note that Diaz has never been finished in the first round in 28 professional spells.
In reality, Diaz (18-10 MMA, 13-8 UFC) has just been completed twice. He was filed by Hermes Franca in WEC 24 at the second round, and the 209 product endured his only livelihood TKO loss to Josh’The Punk’ Thomson at the next round of their April 2013 showdown. (Diaz’s corner threw in the towel)
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