UFC FN145 Betting Tips & Plays
Jan Blachowicz Breakdown:
Both men come into this fight career highs. Santos has appeared unstoppable since going up to light heavyweight, whilst Blachowicz now rides a dominant four battle win streak. This matchup however looks to favour Blachowicz in lots of ways. Durability and cardio is going to be a large factor and there a not many tougher than Blachowicz. Santos throws everything with complete power and is based on finishing opponents. At a five round fight this strategy is a risky one that will backfire in the later rounds. Blachowicz brings quitting power of their own but conserves cardio to get a outcome. On the feet both men may have their moments, but the precise jab of Blachowicz will be very likely to trigger Santos problems. His boxing is dangerous yet wild and a straight jab is one of the best counters to looping hooks. The largest advantage goes to Blachowicz on the ground. Since Santos tires that the takedowns will be available and Santos has historically struggled in the grappling department. The BJJ black-belt skills should find Blachowicz a complete once the opportunity presents.
Bet = Blachowicz at 2.00 (+100) odds. Risk 3 Units to acquire 3.0 Units.
Damir Ismagulov Breakdown:
Ismagulov welcomes the UFC newcomer in what should be a one sided affair. On the feet Ismagulov is fast with his in and out striking. Defensively he avoids trouble whilst throwing in some gaudy strikes to keep opponents guessing. Alvarez appears thinner on the toes using a riskier design. He keeps his hands but does throw competitive combinations. The major differential lies at the grappling department. Alvarez hasn’t shown good takedown defense on the regional landscape and is based on high risk submissions off his back. Against UFC calibre competitions this strategy rarely succeeds. Search for Ismagulov to push his advantage standing and look for excursions and takedowns into the mat where he favours control and top position through floor and pound.
Bet = Ismagulov at 1.34 (-290) chances. Risk 5 Components to acquire 1.70 Units.
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